Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Robles Diversion and Matilija Dam


Robles Diversion has been an essential component of the Matilija Dam Ecosystem Restoration Project (MDERP) since planning began in 2000.  

Background:

The Robles Diversion and Fish Passage Facility is located on the Ventura River 2.3 miles downstream of the Matilija Dam. The Facility includes a timber diversion dam and control gates to divert flows from the upper Ventura River for storage in Lake Casitas.  The lake serves as a primary and backup water supply for agricultural and municipal water users served by the Casitas Municipal Water District (CMWD).  

The diversion was originally constructed by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in 1956 as part of the Ventura River Project which is built around Casitas Dam and Reservoir, located on Coyote Creek about two miles above its junction with the Ventura River.  Casitas infrastructure also includes the 5.4-mile Robles-Casitas Canal, which conveys the diverted flow of the Ventura River into Lake Casitas; and the main conveyance system, which includes 34 miles of pipeline, five pumping stations, and six balancing reservoirs located throughout the project area.  When originally constructed Lake Casitas had a capacity of 254,000 acre-feet, but recent estimates have reduced this to approximately 237,000 acre-feet. 

Robles Diversion and canal
Jan 2003, Rich Reid

According to CMWD, Lake Casitas fills primarily from the natural flow of local creeks and the Robles Diversion. In any given year roughly 1/3 of the Lake’s water comes from the Robles Diversion. 
Diversions are limited by the size of the canal, which can only convey 500 cubic feet per second (cfs) and regulations in a NOAA biological opinion that require adequate releases of water to ensure fish passage and other downstream water supplies. 

The Coyote Creek watershed area that drains directly into the lake is only 3,500 acres. (In comparison, the similar sized Lake Cachuma (193,304 acre-feet) in the neighboring Santa Ynez watershed is supplied by more than 70 times the watershed area of 417 square miles (266,880 acres).)   It was this small watershed area that necessitated the addition of diversion from the Ventura River to help maintain the water supply in Lake Casitas. 

In 2005, a fish passage facility was constructed to allow migration upstream and downstream as well as to screen smolt and other small fish from being diverted into the lake. The components of this facility are shown below:

Robles Diversion components
source: Casitas Municipal Water District


Sedimentation Problems:

Robles Diversion - the flood filled the forebay with sediment and breached the timber cutoff wall
Casitas Municipal Water District quickly implemented emergency repairs to restore water
 diversions to Lake Casitas

As the Robles Diversion dam captures water for diversion in the large forebay, it also traps sediment.  This sedimentation requires ongoing maintenance, including the costly mechanical removal and transport of sediment following a series of small storms or, in some cases, one big winter.

In January 2023 the upper Ventura River experienced a 50-year flood with flows over 20,000 cfs in the Robles reach.  This occurred following the Thomas Fire of December 2017 which burned the majority of the upper watershed.  A huge volume of sediment, including cobble and boulders, backed up behind the diversion dam filling the forebay.  Flows became diverted to the east, eroding the earthen berm up until, fortunately, the timber wall failed.   A similar event occurred in 1969, when 100-year flood flows were diverted both east and west (a phenomenon known as "avulsion") damaging both the diversion canal and the adjacent "riverbottom" neighborhood of Meiners Oaks.  Diversion capability was not restored for the remainder of 1969.

As described in Matilija Dam: removal plans and sediment transport, this existing sedimentation problem will become worse as sand, gravel, and cobble begin to pass over the dam.  Even if Matilija Dam remained in place, future equilibrium sediment loads will triple from what Robles has experienced over the past 70 years.  And dam removal will create a short term sediment "wave" that could also overwhelm the facility.

Solutions to increased sedimentation:

The 2004 Army Corps of Engineers feasibility study for dam removal included a "High Flow Sediment Bypass" at Robles Diversion.  This bypass consisted of additional gates that could be opened to allow sediment transported during peak flows to be flushed through this reach of the river, preventing the kind of backup that occurred in 2023.  
 
In 2019, the Robles Working Group was formed to aid planning and implementation of modifications to the Robles Diversion Facility (operational and/or physical) as an essential component of the Matilija Dam Ecosystem Restoration Project (MDERP).  A consulting team is facilitating and providing technical support for the RWG. The RWG is currently focused on evaluating and selecting an alternative for the Robles Diversion Facility that will enable it to function reliably for water supply, sediment passage, and fish passage.

This work has determined that 
• Existing bypass is too narrow, less than 30% of natural river channel
• Matching natural river width at Robles would require additional bypass between 130 ft to 160 ft wide. 
• It’s feasible to increase flow and sediment transport capacity at Robles
• Possible to adjust flow split between existing bypass and additional bypass as desired
by modifying invert elevation and forebay layout
• Various options to locate additional bypass and change approach flow conditions by
modifying forebay (narrowing, straightening, splitting)

Several alternatives were considered and narrowed down based on additional computer analysis.  Currently the Bureau of Reclamation has built a physical scale model in their facility in Denver to test various configurations and determine the best approach for optimum sediment management.

The two primary alternatives #3 and #5 are illustrated below:






Fisheries considerations:

Although the initial intent of the Robles Diversion modification effort was to address the sedimentation concerns experienced during high flows, the resource agencies have a strong interest in improving fish passage around the diversion facility.  Currently the fish ladder is the only opportunity for passage, even during times when the diversion is not operating.  All river flows are currently routed through the diversion facility down the fish ladder with no bypass option, even outside the diversion season.  And although the fish ladder has proven to be effective for trout, there is interest in ensuring other native species can pass.  Additionally, the current operations are governed by NOAA's biological opinion, which defines how much water is allocated to the fish passage operations.  All of this adds considerable complexity to an already difficult engineering task.   Considerable resources are being directed to the exploration of additional fish ramps or other passage facilities to resolve these concerns.

Flooding concerns:

The original Corps of Engineers plan for this reach included construction of a new levee extending downstream from the Robles Diversion.  This was based on coarse 1-dimensional flood modeling that predicted an incremental increase in streambed elevation due to dam removal.  



Apart from the huge construction footprint, local residents did not welcome the prospect of a large wall complete with chain link fences, rodent control, and service road in their back yards.  It turns out much of the flood concern was based on unrealistic backflow from the Ventura River.


Subsequent 2D modeling provided a more realistic understanding of the flood concerns at Meiners Oaks.  As described above, sediment trapped by the Robles diversion dam creates a flood hazard to the adjacent community when the river is diverted by the blockage (avulsion.)  The consulting team has conducted a preliminary study of how these high flow bypass designs will affect the downstream flood risk.  Although the existing flood risk from the Ventura River may be characterized as relatively minor overtopping of the naturalized embankment, initial assessment shows that enhancing the flow path through this reach will help reduce this potential flooding.  (Note that a considerable area of this neighborhood is at risk from overflow from Cozy Del creek, shown in yellow.)  These preliminary results are promising, although the primary flood risk is potential stream bank erosion on the left (east) bank of the existing high flow channel downstream of the Robles Diversion.  This downstream reach is directly affected by how flows are directed by the upstream modifications. 




Summary:

The Ventura River Project constructed in 1959 provided Casitas Municipal Water District more than the 50 year lifespan of benefits from Matilija Dam.  Over that period, the district was able to release water stored in Matilija reservoir for diversion at Robles into Lake Casitas.  Sedimentation has rendered Matilija Dam completely useless for water supply, and structural degradation requires its timely removal.  Most importantly, dam removal necessitates modernization of downstream infrastructure. 

Modification of the Robles Diversion facility has been identified as the critical path component of the Matilija Dam project.  Although complex and expensive, careful consideration of a solution that eliminates costly maintenance and periodic cleanout of sediment from the diversion facility as well as the need for costly maintenance of a permanent levee downstream will provide long term benefits to the community.  Completing this component will clear the path to dam removal which is necessary to restore watershed resilience including access to headwater habitat that the endangered steelhead require.  



References:




Monday, March 9, 2026

Surfrider visits Surfers Point

The Surfrider Foundation California Chapter Conference was held in Ventura on Feb 28, 2026.  Over a hundred activists and Surfrider staff from around the state gathered to learn from each other and network, with a focus on national campaigns.  


The two day event was conducted on the top floor of the Crown Plaza hotel, a site blessed with an overview of Surfers Point and the Santa Barbara Channel.


At the end of the day the group walked along the point out to the river mouth to learn about Surfers Point Managed Shoreline Retreat and see first hand the recently completed project.




Surfers Point has become a national model for coastal management, and lessons learned here will provide a case study for other communities struggling with coastal erosion.





Thursday, February 19, 2026

Parking at Surfers Point

With little fanfare, the new parking lot at Surfers Point opened for public access on Friday, February 20, 2026.  This follows completion of the final landscaping, including seeding the constructed dunes with native plants.  Straw was added as a topping mulch to help prevent seeds from blowing away.  This final measure was completed right before the last rainfall of a wet winter.    The City of Ventura plans to organize an official ribbon cutting ceremony in the near future.


For now, day use parking rates are still $2, but a resolution for pay parking has not yet been announced.

Parking for beach access at Surfers Point has been a concern since construction began in 2024.  Beach access parking was designated in the main Fairgrounds parking lot, with Derby Club parking designated on the beach side of the parking lot.  Many local residents who visit the beach daily have in the past been able to purchase an annual pass.  These passes were honored on weekdays during construction, but event parking rates of $10-15 were charged for weekend beach access, sometimes starting on Friday afternoon through Sunday.  Many locals were frustrated when it was announced that the annual pass would not be made available.   

Surfrider encouraged people to attend the Fair Board meetings to express their concerns.  https://ventura.surfrider.org/news/reinstate-affordable-parking-at-surfers-point

The issue was in the news in January:

Controversial parking rate increases have been at least temporarily halted at a Ventura County Fairgrounds lot that serves one of the best-known surfing beaches in the region.

After a closed-door discussion on Jan. 5, the Ventura County Fairgrounds Board of Directors voted unanimously to pause last year’s rate increase that hiked the daily parking rate at a lot that serves the iconic Surfers Point in Ventura from $2 to $5. They also paused a pending increase that would have doubled the price of an annual parking pass to $150.

The closed door session was in response to legal concerns after the Coastal Commission issued a letter outlining the process required for increased beach parking fees.

In the News:

Surfers Point parking rates, on hold for now, stoke frustration, VCStar Jan 25, 2026 (Yahoo news)

Reference:

2025.12.05 CCC Letter to Ventura Fairgrounds



Monday, January 5, 2026

Shore & Beach article


 

“Surfers Point managed shoreline retreat project: Lessons from a cobble beach pilot on a dynamic delta”
Bob Battalio, Marc Beyeler, David M. Hubbard, A. Paul Jenkin, Kiki Patsch, and Louis A. White

Abstract

The Surfers Point Managed Shoreline Retreat Project in Ventura, California, USA, demonstrates an alternative to conventional shoreline armoring by using natural materials and geomorphic design to avoid the negative consequences associated with riprap and seawalls. This paper evaluates the physical performance of Phase 1 of the project, which constructed a dynamic cobble berm/sandy beach and dune system within the active delta of the Ventura River. The design replicated shore form and function while relocating infrastructure inland to restore space for coastal processes. The project met multiple objectives including erosion and flood mitigation, access and recreation benefits, and restoration of natural morphology and ecology. Implementation required extensive coordination among public landowners, managers, regulators, funders, stakeholders, and the public. The engineering design consists of a base layer of cobble, topped with sand and vegetated dunes, intended to respond dynamically to elevated waves and river flows, and variable sediment input from upcoast and the Ventura River. Monitoring from 2011 through 2024 shows a dynamically stable and resilient system. The project provides a valuable case study for cobble-based living shorelines in high-energy coastal environments. An applied geomorphology approach informed by reference sites is a valid basis for establishing the geometry and materials for cobble-boulder berms and vegetated dunes. Landward realignment of built infrastructure was required to provide sufficient space for natural processes. Setback distances were informed by wave run-up calculations. Parametric equations for wave run-up combined with engineering judgement can inform development setbacks. Native dune vegetation and low-relief foredune geometry have proven resilient within this coastal flood plain, with the cobble berm providing protection. The natural infrastructure has accommodated erosion events, dissipated wave run-up and recovered repeatedly with sand deposition since construction in 2012.


"Shore & Beach" is the quarterly peer-reviewed journal of the American Shore and Beach Preservation Association (ASBPA).  ASBPA is an association of coastal engineering professionals with state chapters such as the California CSBPA.  The journal publishes papers that contribute to the knowledge base necessary for sound coastal decision-making and the important contemporary debates concerning shores and beaches everywhere. Content includes coastal scientific, economic, social, and political findings, coastal observations, and editorials.


References:

“Surfers Point managed shoreline retreat project: Lessons from a cobble beach pilot on a dynamic delta" Bob Battalio, Marc Beyeler, David M. Hubbard, A. Paul Jenkin, Kiki Patsch, and Louis A. White

A pdf of the article may be downloaded here

Shore & Beach ASBPA: https://asbpa.org/publications/shore-and-beach/


More on this blog:

Natural Shoreline Case Study

Surfers' Point case study

Climate.gov (another case study)



Monday, October 20, 2025

Surfers' Point: Surfrider videos

The Surfrider Foundation has produced several videos describing the Surfers' Point Managed Shoreline Retreat project.


Feb 25, 2025



Sep 19, 2025:




Podcast: EP.05 Fighting Climate Change with Nature-Based Solutions: Surfrider's Climate Action Program; interview with Paul Jenkin starts at 25 min




More at Surfrider.org; 


State of the Beach report, evaluating coastal health and risks for communities nationwide. It also identifies key strategies for success.



Aerial images of Surfers' Point construction



 Large long period swell refracts around Ventura Point, 22 December 2024. (Harvest buoy 14.9ft 18sec 285deg)
Photograph: Rich Reid/Surfrider Foundation



Construction of Phase 2 of the Surfers' Point Managed Shoreline Retreat project has been underway since October 2024.  The beachside work including the new bike path was completed in summer 2025 before work was stopped for the Ventura County Fair in August.  Work to complete the new parking lots resumed in September.  

The beach restoration process involved 
  • removing the damaged bike path and parking lot
  • excavating the back shore area beneath the removed parking lot
  • importing 20,000 cubic yards (32,000 tons) of cobble and pressure washing imported beach sand to construct a buried cobble berm
  • importing 20,000 cy of sand to construct contoured dunes
  • installing post and cable to designate walkways
  • installing sand fencing to trap windblown sand
  • seeding to establish native dune plants (to be completed this fall)

These photos illustrate the construction process and changes to the beach and parking on Ventura County Fairgrounds property;



Surfers' Point before; aerial view from the east 

Surfers' Point after; aerial view from the east
beachside and new bike path complete

Surfers' Point after; aerial view from the east 2-28-2026
final construction complete



Surfers' Point before; aerial view from the west
showing transition from Phase 1 
(note loss of beachfront parking)




Surfers' Point during construction; aerial view from the west 
showing transition from Phase 1 
beachfront and bike path complete



Surfers' Point during construction; aerial view from the west
March 21, 2025




Surfers' Point during construction; aerial view from the west
paving underway, October 10, 2025


These images illustrate the construction of the buried cobble berm:

Surfers' Point during construction; aerial view from the west
cobble berm construction January 20, 2025


Surfers' Point during construction; aerial view from the west
cobble berm construction February 16, 2025
(cobble berm 
with sand washed into the voids, constructed in two lifts)



Surfers' Point during construction; aerial view from the west
dunes constructed over buried cobble berm,  March 22, 2025



Surfers' Point during construction; aerial view from the west
dunes constructed over buried cobble berm,  March 22, 2025



Thanks to photographers Rich Reid, Kenrick Koo, Meghan Woodbury for contributing these photos!

More:

Phase 1 construction of Surfers' Point Cobble Berm


 

Thursday, June 5, 2025

Matilija Dam: removal plans and sediment transport

 

Matilija Dam, aerial view of impounded sediment, May 2024

Planning for the removal of Matilija Dam has been ongoing since 1998 (see chronology report).  As with all dam removal projects, sediment management is the primary concern.  Questions include how much sediment has accumulated, how best to remove the sediments to restore the natural stream gradient, and what are the downstream impacts when sediment is released from the former reservoir?  

This last question is particularly relevant to the Ventura River where significant floodplain and water supply infrastructure has been developed since Matilija Dam was constructed in 1947.  Concerns about potential impacts to aging and deficient levees downstream as well as the Robles diversion have led to a multicomponent project called the Matilija Dam Ecosystem Restoration Project (MDERP.)  Although complicated by the multiple agencies, interests, and components, this complex endeavor will ultimately enhance watershed resilience through upgraded infrastructure and restored natural processes.

Map of MDERP project components,
Ventura County 2024 

Field studies have confirmed the general profile of sediments trapped upstream of the dam.  Over the decades, the remnant reservoir accumulated fine silt and clay while the larger "coarse" sediment accumulated in the delta and upstream channel.  


Note that over the past 3 decades since studies began, it is estimated that approximately 50% more sediment has accumulated behind the dam, primarily due to the 2018 Thomas fire and the floods of 2022-2023.  Currently, sand and gravel has overlain the fine reservoir deposit and filled to the level of the outlet on the back side of the dam so that sand and gravel are now being transported through and over the dam.  

Current planning for dam removal includes engineering two 12ft diameter orifices that will be opened during a flood to allow high flows to head-cut a channel upstream through the sediment (AECOM, March 2022).  This initial flush will mobilize a large percentage of the fine sediments stored in the former reservoir area resulting in temporarily high turbidity (i.e. "muddy" water) downstream.  


Dam removal concept for Matilija Dam

The plans call for complete removal of trees and other vegetation upstream of the dam and excavation of a "pilot channel" to initiate head cutting through the middle of the reservoir area to maximize evacuation of the fine sediments during this initial flush.  It is expected that this channel will become relatively stable and erosion will diminish once the flow cuts down to the approximate depth and alignment of the historic channel.  A storm prediction analysis (AECOM, November 2022) determined the preceding conditions necessary for a 3-yr or greater flood event, equivalent to about 3,300 cfs deemed necessary to adequately establish the new upstream channel and flush the fine sediment down the Ventura River and out to the ocean. 




channel through sediments upstream of Matilija Dam resulting from head-cut erosion during flood
alignment based on historic streambed (Stillwater 2016)




After this initial (phase I) flush, future floods will incrementally move more of the coarse sediment (gravel, cobble, boulders) down the Ventura river.  Based on other similar dam removal projects, it is assumed that a maximum of 80% of the trapped sediment will eventually be transported downstream.  In other words high terraces will exist adjacent to the restored stream channel through Matilija canyon that will gradually erode over time feeding sand gravel and cobble into the Ventura River in addition to the restored natural "background" sediment flowing down Matilija Creek.


Estimates of sediment available for transport after dam removal


A computer model was developed to simulate the downstream response of the Ventura River to the release of sediment resulting from dam removal (Stillwater Sciences, February 2020, March 2025).  The table below shows the sediment volumes applied to this computer simulation.  Note that the impounded sediment represents approximately 7 times the "background" supply from Matilija Creek, which makes sense since the dam has been trapping that supply for decades.  Also note that the supply from North Fork Matilija Creek (which runs up Hwy 33) is just one third of the background volume from Matilija Creek.

Sediment supply applied to computer models of the Ventura River


The change in sediment load in the Ventura River may be conceptualized by the graph below.  The current trend with dam in place is for increased sediment to pass through/over Matilija Dam until the background load from Matilija Creek is added to the current sediment transport in the river.  The initial phase of Matilija Dam removal will generate a large pulse of predominantly fine sediment released through the orifices (outlets) in the base of the dam which will be transported by flood flows down the river and out to the Pacific ocean.  After this initial flush, the dam will be deconstructed and each subsequent flood will erode and transport coarser sediment from the reservoir delta and upstream channel until long-term equilibrium is reached. There may be 6 or 7 times the current sediment load during initial release of sediment, and approximately three times current load with long-term equilibrium conditions.  Restoration of natural sediment transport will provide tremendous benefits to the riverine ecosystem, migrating endangered steelhead, and ultimately the rivermouth delta and beaches of Ventura County, but some of the downstream infrastructure will need to be modified to accommodate these changes.  

In order to model sediment transport, several "synthetic hydrographs" were developed based on historic flows in the Ventura River.  Because the "flashy" watershed is characterized by long periods of dry conditions with occasional large winter floods, hydrographs were developed to compress time and represent those periods when sediment is moving down the river.



 The "Run 2b" hydrograph represents the most rapid transport of sediment from the reservoir by repeating the extreme floods of 1969 back-to-back four times.  The "Run 2e" hydrograph was used to help predict what may happen under a more realistic scenario.   The graph below illustrates the rapid flushing of sediment from Matilija Dam with the 2b hydrograph and the relative magnitude of this volume compared with the background inputs from Matilija Creek and other tributaries.


The map below gives an overview of the extent of the computer model.  Topography based upon Lidar imaging provided the base channel configuration.  Note that modeling is limited to a "fixed bed" so the natural scour and avulsion (channel changes) are not taken into account. 




The graph below shows the maximum expected downstream changes to the riverbed and 100-year flood elevation with the removal of Matilija Dam.  As one might expect, the biggest changes are in the first two miles directly downstream of the dam where the river channel is narrow and constrained.  Below the Robles diversion the floodplain widens and becomes braided with a natural capacity to absorb increased sediment loads.  Note that the model assumed that modifications are made to both the Robles Diversion and Santa Ana Bridge to accommodate the increases in sediment.  (Santa Ana Bridge widening project was completed in 2022 and planning is underway for a high flow bypass at Robles.)  




Over the course of the project, several computer modeling approaches have been used beginning with a one dimensional model, the DREAM2 dam removal model, and several iterations of the 2-D model which was developed to help provide greater resolution for areas of concern.  As illustrated below, all of these models show similar trends.    



These results may be translated into more practical terms by projecting the predicted 100-yr water surface elevation onto the floodplain topography to visualize potential changes in flooding.  Below is one example of the worst case scenario in the reach directly downstream of the dam.  The yellow area depicts the potential change in the floodplain due to dam removal. 




The next step will be translating all of this data into a risk and liability approach that considers all downstream interests.  Developing a realistic assessment of these risks will be important step toward dam removal.

Update:

The modeling report was updated in December 2025 to include a worst case probability analysis based on a model sensitivity analysis;  
Multiple SRH-2D model runs were conducted during Phase III to assess the sensitivity of downstream impacts to different rates and volumes of sediment evacuation from the Matilija Dam impoundment.  ...the sensitivity analysis for the upstream model was primarily conducted with Run 2e hydrology because it represents a much more probable hydrologic scenario as compared to Run 2b. For Run 2e, seven sensitivity runs were conducted including sediment supply volume/rate increases of 10%, 20%, 30%, 40% and 50% and decreases of 20% and 37%. For Run 2b, three sensitivity analysis runs were conducted including sediment supply volume/rate decreases of 14%, 20% and 32%. No sensitivity analyses were conducted assessing the impacts of sediment supply/rate increases for Run 2b because it is already considered to be a rare and unlikely hydrologic scenario in terms storm event magnitude and the short duration of reservoir flushing. 




A statistical evaluation was conducted to determine which of the sensitivity analysis model runs most appropriately represent the 80th-percentile (P80) behavior observed in the ensemble of simulations. 





The sensitivity analysis and subsequent statistical evaluation provide an estimate of plausible upper-bound project impacts for the Study Reach based on a composite of model results from different model simulations as described below in Table 5-1.  Run 2e + 30% represents a closer match to the P80 impacts closer to the Matilija Dam and Run 2b represents a closer match farther downstream. 

The timing of these worst case conditions are shown in the table and illustrated with arrows on the modeled hydrographs below;


The main changes to the results of the SRH-2D modeling is an increase in potential flood risk for the upstream reach of the river.




Commentary: 

The Matilija Dam Removal Task 2.9 2D Modeling Report summarizes more than two decades of analysis directed at determining the transport and fate of the more than 8 million cubic yards of sediment currently sequestered in the former reservoir of Matilija Dam. This unique dam removal project in a steep flashy coastal drainage is complicated by the developed floodplain downstream of the dam. The need to assess the risk of the project to infrastructure and communities downstream has required an ongoing evolution in the state of the art hydrologic and geomorphic computer simulations.

This body of work concludes that that the primary impact of dam removal will occur in the first few miles downstream of the dam within a timeframe bounded by the first two 100 year flood events (perhaps many decades or more than a century into the future). In the upper reach of the study area below the dam the floodplain is geologically constrained and the pulse of sediment released from behind the dam will temporarily increase streambed elevations and water surface elevations. This effect diminishes downstream of the Robles/Meiners Oaks area as the broad undeveloped floodplain will naturally absorb and meter out this sediment pulse through avulsion and channel migration processes beyond the capacity of this modeling effort.

The Phase II SRH-2D model improves on the prior 1D analyses. However, the Phase III SRH-2D model that was developed to add sand transport to the simulations probably overpredicts streambed aggradation. The models developed here for Matilija Dam, particularly the Phase III analysis, represent an advancement in the state of the art, therefore there is not yet a similar case where this has been applied for comparison.  Moreover, the P80 analysis does not represent the 80th percentile likelihood of occurrence, but rather the 80th percentile of the computer model runs chosen for this analysis.

However, to the extent that other large dams have been removed, there is some hindsight into how such predictions have played out. One important conclusion from the referenced review of dam removal (Major et al 2017) is:

Rivers are resilient. After dam removals, rivers have largely achieved apparent stability – at least within their range of natural variability – within a few years rather than decades. Despite concerns about rapidly releasing possibly large volumes of sediment to river systems, most removals to date have shown adverse geomorphic impacts (such as complete bed-texture transformation, enhanced flood risk, or damage to fish habitat) are short-lived and have been neither as damaging nor as long-lasting as feared.



References:

Comments on Matilija Dam Removal Task 2.9 2D Modeling Report November 2024 Submittal, Memo to Matilija (MDERP) Project Team from Paul Jenkin, Matilija Coalition, December 13, 2024

Matilija Dam Ecosystem Restoration Project, Chronology Report, Ventura County Public Works Agency and Rincon Consultants, April 2023

Matilija Dam Removal, Sediment Transport, and Robles Diversion Mitigation Project, Dam Removal Concepts Evaluation Report, AECOM and Stillwater Sciences, January 2016

DRAFT 65% Design Report for Matilija Dam Removal, AECOM, March 2022

Predictability Assessment of Flushing Storm Event, Matilija Dam Removal 65 Percent Design Planning Study, AECOM, November 2022



Matilija Dam Removal 65% Design Subtask 2.9: Hydraulic and Sediment Transport Modeling in SRH-2D, Stillwater Sciences, March 2025

Major, J. J., A. E. East, J. E. O’Connor, G. E. Grant, A. C. Wilcox, C. S. Magirl, M. J. Collins, and D. D. Tullos, 2017. Gravel-Bed Rivers: Processes and Disasters, First Edition, Chapter 13 Geomorphic Responses to Dam Removal in the United States – a Two-Decade Perspective.

Lessons Learned from Sediment Transport Model Predictions and Long-Term Postremoval Monitoring: Marmot Dam Removal Project on the Sandy River in Oregon, Bruce Orr 2014, Journal of Hydraulic Engineering. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0000894

More information and references are available at https://matilijadam.venturacounty.gov/


On this blog: